Since 1950, Wisconsin’s average temperatures have climbed 3 degrees Fahrenheit and its yearly rainfall has increased by 17%, drowning crops and plaguing those that survive with white mold that costs farmers dearly.
But Democrats are hoping the chaos might yield another term in the governor’s mansion.
A new 30-second ad from the progressive climate group Evergreen Action, which grew out of Washington Gov. Jay Inslee’s climate-focused 2020 presidential bid, praises Evers’ plan to move the state to 100% clean energy by the end of the decade, a tactic the group hopes can fire up young and liberal voters in one of the closest gubernatorial races in the country.
“In every corner of our state, Wisconsinites feel the impact of a changing climate, from the effects on our crops and livestock to the damage to our roads and highways,” a man’s voice intones over soft piano music and stock footage, boasting the plan will help the state’s roads and agriculture while creating 40,000 new jobs. “That’s why Gov. Tony Evers has a plan to take action.”
Home to mega farms and manufacturers churning out food and beverages, the state is a major energy user. In 1997, coal-fired power plants made up 82% of Wisconsin’s electricity production. This past June, that number was down to 31% — still above the national average, according to Energy Information Administration data. And natural gas — which produces less carbon dioxide than coal but spews an even-more-potent greenhouse gas called methane — has largely made up the difference, producing 41% of the state’s power.
Wisconsin, meanwhile, generates a lower-than-average share of its electricity from zero-carbon nuclear reactors or renewable plants.
In April, Evers issued the state’s first energy transition plan, a 172-page proposal that included ideas to rapidly dramatically update Wisconsin building codes, create a new system to encourage utilities to ditch natural gas for geothermal heat, and ramp up energy efficiency standards.
This month, the governor joined Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota in a bid for federal backing to establish a regional hub for producing hydrogen, a fuel that produces no carbon when burned and thus is widely seen as a possible replacement for oil and coal in manufacturing.
In 63 out of 72 Wisconsin counties, large majorities of adults polled last year wanted the governor to “do more to address global warming” according to data from the Yale University Program on Climate Change Communications nationwide annual survey. While the other nine counties saw less than 51% wanting Evers to ramp up climate policy, support remained widespread, with none falling below 48%.
The ad, however, is airing on broadcast television in just one of the state’s media markets: Madison, the university town and state capital.
Madison is a unique television market nationally. While most markets of similarly modest stature — it’s the 81st largest market nationally, right behind Toledo, Ohio, and ahead of Colorado Springs, Colorado — have right-leaning rural and suburban audiences, Madison and surrounding Dane County are the heart of Wisconsin liberalism.
That means a relatively small ad buy can reach a large number of left-leaning voters for minimal cost. In the case of the Evergreen ad, the group is spending in the middle of the six-figure range and will also run the ad on digital.
The race between Evers and construction company owner Tim Michels is the tightest gubernatorial race in the country, with every recent public survey showing a contest within the margin of error.
It’s also a race where Democratic turnout could make the difference. In the latest Marquette University Law School poll, 46% of registered voters backed Evers and 41% backed Michels. But because Republican voters were more likely to say they were certain to vote in November, the race was neck and neck among likely voters, with 47% backing Evers and 46% backing Michels.
Climate has not been a top issue in the race, and the Marquette poll didn’t even list climate change as an option when polling the state on its top issues. But climate change came up during a debate on Friday, when Evers touted his clean energy plan and Michels questioned how much human activity was causing climate change.
“Temperature has always fluctuated throughout the history of this world,” he said. “We can’t just say that it all happened because of man’s actions in the last 100 years.”
The scientific consensus has long supported the idea that man-made carbon emissions have caused the Earth’s climate to dramatically increase in temperature since the 1800s, a problem that will only get worse if the world’s governments do not work to decrease emissions.