The Trump administration’s move to impose tariffs on Mexico sent shock waves across the country of 130 million people on Sunday, with economic sector after sector bracing for the impact of these measures.
So far, Mexico has yet to provide any specifics on how it plans to hit back. But President Claudia Sheinbaum’s negotiators must select from areas where her country has some leverage to react, such as agriculture, and parts of the economy where it has little or none, like the energy industry.
“Just as a starting point, Mexico has to retaliate,” said Kenneth Smith Ramos, a former Mexican government negotiator who put together the retaliation list in 2018, when the country squared off with the first Trump administration over tariffs.
“But you need to do it in a way that causes economic harm in the U.S., with precision shots on certain products that also cause political turbulence,” Mr. Smith Ramos added.
That could mean new tariffs on Kentucky bourbon, high-fructose corn syrup, pork or other products coming predominantly from states that supported President Trump in the November election.
Conditions have changed since the last time Mexico and the United States were mired in a trade crisis, during Mr. Trump’s first term. Since then, Mexico has eclipsed China as the largest trading partner in goods with the United States. Mexico also emerged as the top market worldwide for U.S. food and agriculture exports, with those imports surging 7 percent from the previous year to more than $29 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.