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Millions of voters in states across the country cast their ballots in the presidential primary on Super Tuesday, leaving little doubt that the November election will be a rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump.

But in a race that is increasingly inevitable, a New York Times/Siena College poll found a critical group of voters who are making the outcome of that race anything but certain.

Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains who these voters are and why they present a particular threat to Mr. Biden.


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Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times.

Two rows of tables a pictured with various people sitting behind them. In the background, voting booths are set up.
A polling site in Charlotte, N.C. President Biden and Donald J. Trump won primaries there and in more than a dozen other states on Tuesday.Travis Dove for The New York Times
  • The big change between the 2020 and 2024 races: Biden is unpopular.

  • The latest NYT/Siena College poll included those who started the survey but didn’t finish it. Here’s why.

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