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The latest Times polling shows the extent of the challenge that President Biden faces and the strengths that Donald J. Trump retains. A yearning for change — as well as discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters — may lie behind both.

Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, explains the surveys: New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, and the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.


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Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times.

Former president Trump and President Biden speaking in public. Both wearing navy-blue suits with the United States flag pin.
Former President Trump speaking at a campaign rally in Wisconsin. President Biden makes remarks following a briefing from Micron officials in New York.(l-r) Scott Olson/Getty Images; Doug Mills/The New York Times

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Nate Cohn contributed reporting.

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